ARCADIA, Calif. -- “It’s the edge of the world, end all of Western Civilization.
The Sun may rise in the East, at least it’s settled in the final location.”
-Red Hot Chili Peppers, “Californication”
The Derby trail begins in September each year, when a group of colts runs its best race over the mile dirt course at Churchill Downs. They call that race the Iroquois, and the winner gets 10 points toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby.
Tomorrow, Santa Anita will host the final major prep on the Road to Derby 152: The Grade 1, Half-Million Dollar Santa Anita Derby. The winner gets 100 points in this one - truly a final location.
The Santa Anita Derby, alongside the Florida Derby, is a great predictor of high-level success in the Kentucky Derby. Just last year, the top two finishers in the SA Derby finished 2-3 in Derby 151; 19 total winners have exited the SA Derby, with four winners since 2012. No other major preps can boast what Santa Anita and Gulfstream can.
Trainer Bob Baffert has the inside pair in this one - the two favorites - as he tries to win a record 10th SA Derby. The catch - he hasn’t won one since 2019. Trainer Doug O’Neill - who will win the training title this spring at Santa Anita - sends a pair to the post as well.
Let’s meet the field, and put together our weekly wager. If you’re wagering on Santa Anita, check out our friends at AmWager! They have a 100% deposit match up to $50!
1. Cherokee Nation. 5/2. Jockey: Florent Geroux. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Cherokee Nation is the current buzz horse on the Derby 152 trail, coming out of a sizzling win in a maiden race just last month. Prior to that, he had run 5 times to no avail, many of those races against the kind of company he’ll see here. I question his ability to run without lasix, which he used in both of his best career runs. Can he win here? Of course. Will he? I think it’s worth it to try and beat him.
Comment: toss for value.
2. Potente. 2/1. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
There are two horses making their 3rd starts on Saturday which I think can make major splashes in Derby 152: Potente here, and Iron Honor in the Wood Memorial. If Potente wins with style, there’s a world where he moves to the top of the Derby 152 power rankings; he simply needs a top 3 finish to lock up a spot in Louisville. He’s a grinder, but one that showed an ability to sit close to the front-runners before passing Robusta in the stretch of the San Felipe last month. He can win here, and is capable of another step forward.
Comment: include.
3. Vitruvian Man. 15/1. Jockey: Antonio Fresu. Trainer: Doug O’Neill.
The first of the two O’Neill trainees in this race, Vitruvian Man would be a bit of a stunner should he pull this one out. A son of champion Vino Rosso, he broke his maiden at Keeneland in October, the sole win in his career. He tried the synthetic at Turfway before shipping west, to no avail there, either. I think he’s in here to make sure this race gets a fuller field - and the full Derby points assigned to this race.
Comment: toss.
4. Robusta. 8/1. Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo. Trainer: Doug O’Neill.
Robusta was caught deep in the stretch in the San Felipe last month, turning in the kind of performance his breeding told us might be there. A son of Accelerate, himself a winner of the Breeder’s Cup Classic, out of an Into Mischief dam, Robusta has all the biology to be great. He took a solid step forward last out, and I think he takes another. Jaramillo and O’Neill have become a must-include pair, winning 30% of their races together at Santa Anita this meet. He’s our top pick this week.
Comment: most likely winner.
5. So Happy. 7/2. Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Mark Glatt.
So Happy won the Grade 2 San Vicente, a 7 furlong sprint at the outset of February. He tried two turns for the first time last out in the San Felipe, and simply didn’t have the run in him that day. His breeding suggests that’ll be the general direction of his future career, shorter the better in his races; there’s nothing wrong with being a champion sprinter. I hope to see him on Derby 152 Day in the Pat Day Mile.
Comment: toss.
6. Start The Ride. 30/1. Jockey: Armando Ayuso. Trainer: Dan Blacker.
Trainer Dan Blacker won the Cal Cup Derby with Start The Ride, at the time still a maiden. He paid $13.60 that day, and the connections decided to try him the San Felipe, to no avail. Gotta run ‘em to win, so no hate from this handicapper. The last Cal-bred to win the SA Derby? California Chrome, who went on to win the 2014 Kentucky Derby,.
Comment: toss.
7. Intrepido. 7/2. Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: Jeff Mullins.
Intrepido has the best resume in the race as the winner of the Grade 1 American Pharoah in October here at Santa Anita. He ran second last out in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis, a mile prep ahead of the San Felipe. His connections decided to move straight to the SA Derby, and he fits well in this group. I think he’s poised for a big race here, and the connections may keep the price above 3/1, which is more than fair.
Comment: include.
The Sporting Tribune Wager
$10 Late Pick 3, starts race 10 ($60): 2,4,7 / 1 / 4,11. Good Luck - and happy Derby Day!